{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/read-a-confidence-interval-as-a-procedure-with-assumptions",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0264",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Read a confidence interval as a procedure with assumptions",
  "summary": "The interval is useful because of how it was made, not because 95 is a reassuring number.",
  "kind": "concept",
  "body": "A frequentist confidence level describes the coverage of the interval-making procedure over repeated samples under its assumptions. For an interval around a mean, it does not say that 95% of individual cases lie between the endpoints. Inspect the target, width and method before interpreting it.",
  "limits": [
    "Sampling bias or a misspecified model can undermine the procedure despite a precise-looking interval."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-statistical-judgment"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-CD81D61C5370E043"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "A frequentist confidence level describes the long-run coverage of the interval-producing procedure under its assumptions.",
      "source_id": "RS-CD81D61C5370E043",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "It is not the proportion of individual observations inside an interval for the population mean.",
      "locator": "Interpretation of confidence limits"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A report turns a 95% confidence interval into a guarantee about observations or a fixed parameter."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Sampling bias or a misspecified model can undermine the procedure despite a precise-looking interval."
  ],
  "example": "An interval for average processing time is not a prediction interval for tomorrow's single job.",
  "check": "The interval is interpreted for its stated target without turning it into an individual guarantee.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-CD81D61C5370E043",
      "title": "Confidence Limits for the Mean",
      "url": "https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda352.htm"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0264",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0265",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/keep-the-condition-attached-to-a-p-value"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-D4FD0B28897E9517",
      "title": "Check what a study can actually tell you",
      "url": "/collections/check-what-a-study-can-actually-tell-you"
    }
  ]
}