{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/keep-the-condition-attached-to-a-p-value",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0265",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Keep the condition attached to a p-value",
  "summary": "The small number does not answer every question that can be phrased with 'chance'.",
  "kind": "concept",
  "body": "A p-value asks how unusual a statistic at least this extreme would be under a specified null model. It does not reverse that statement into the probability that the null is true. Read it alongside the design, effect estimate, uncertainty and analysis choices.",
  "limits": [
    "A small p-value cannot repair biased measurement, undisclosed analysis selection or an irrelevant outcome."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-statistical-judgment"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-BC486D625F0EA847"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "A p-value is calculated from the probability of a statistic at least as extreme as observed under the specified null model.",
      "source_id": "RS-BC486D625F0EA847",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Reversing that conditional statement does not yield the probability that the null hypothesis is true.",
      "locator": "p-values"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Someone describes a p-value as the chance that a finding is false or happened by accident."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A small p-value cannot repair biased measurement, undisclosed analysis selection or an irrelevant outcome."
  ],
  "example": "A p-value of 0.03 does not mean a 3% chance that the study's conclusion is wrong.",
  "check": "The explanation preserves the conditional model rather than inventing a probability of truth.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-BC486D625F0EA847",
      "title": "Critical Values and p Values",
      "url": "https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section1/prc131.htm"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-D4FD0B28897E9517",
      "title": "Check what a study can actually tell you",
      "url": "/collections/check-what-a-study-can-actually-tell-you"
    }
  ]
}