{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/turn-a-forecast-disagreement-into-an-if-then-term",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0333",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Turn a forecast disagreement into an if–then term",
  "summary": "You do not always need to agree on the forecast if the contract can survive both forecasts.",
  "kind": "pattern",
  "body": "Write the competing future scenarios and ask whether the agreement can change depending on what actually happens. Define an observable trigger, the consequence and how measurement will be resolved. This can convert 'your forecast versus mine' into a conditional allocation of risk.",
  "limits": [
    "Contingent clauses can create incentives, disputes and legal consequences; important agreements need appropriate legal review."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-negotiation-deal-design"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-A9AECD9E69DDF755"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Program on Negotiation guidance describes contingent agreements as if-then terms that can bridge genuine disagreement about uncertain future events.",
      "source_id": "RS-A9AECD9E69DDF755",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Contingent terms can create perverse incentives or legal complexity and require careful drafting and enforceability review.",
      "locator": "Consider a contingency agreement"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Both sides want a deal but disagree sincerely about an uncertain future outcome."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Contingent clauses can create incentives, disputes and legal consequences; important agreements need appropriate legal review."
  ],
  "example": "A delivery contract can link part of the fee to a clearly measured on-time milestone when the parties disagree about schedule confidence.",
  "check": "The term can be evaluated later from a defined event or measurement rather than a retrospective argument about whose forecast was 'right.'",
  "recognition": "If [observable future condition] occurs by [time/measurement rule], then [term A]. Otherwise, [term B]. Measurement source: [source].",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-A9AECD9E69DDF755",
      "title": "In Contract Negotiations, Agree on How You’ll Disagree",
      "url": "https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/dispute-resolution/in-contract-negotiations-agree-on-how-youll-disagree/"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0333",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0330",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/trade-on-differences-instead-of-splitting-every-issue"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-4FEE20A8D0BD67A8",
      "title": "Prepare the walk-away, then negotiate the whole package",
      "url": "/collections/prepare-the-walk-away-then-negotiate-the-whole-package"
    }
  ]
}