{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/draw-a-connection-circle-when-causes-chase-each-other",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0340",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Draw a connection circle when causes chase each other",
  "summary": "Some problems are not chains. They are loops wearing a chain's costume.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Place the important changing variables around a circle. Draw an arrow only when you can state how a change in one variable is expected to influence another, including direction where useful. Follow the links until reinforcing or balancing loops become visible. Mark weak links as hypotheses that need evidence.",
  "limits": [
    "A causal arrow is a model, not proof. Avoid diagrams so dense that every variable appears to cause every other variable."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-adaptive-thinking-tools"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-D295223796F1E7D5"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "The Waters Center presents connection circles and causal connection maps as tools for identifying interdependencies and causal links in systems.",
      "source_id": "RS-D295223796F1E7D5",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A drawn causal connection is a model to test, not proof that the relationship exists or has the assumed direction.",
      "locator": "Causal Connection Circle Mapping"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Several variables influence one another and a linear root-cause list keeps producing contradictions."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A causal arrow is a model, not proof. Avoid diagrams so dense that every variable appears to cause every other variable."
  ],
  "example": "Workload, queue age, overtime, defect rate and rework can form feedback loops that a flat cause list misses.",
  "check": "The map reveals at least one circular dependency or explicitly shows that the suspected variables do not form one.",
  "steps": [
    "Choose a small set of variables that can meaningfully increase, decrease or change.",
    "Connect variables only when you can state the proposed influence.",
    "Trace closed loops and note likely delays.",
    "Mark uncertain links for observation or testing rather than polishing the diagram."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-D295223796F1E7D5",
      "title": "Tools of Systems Thinking Courses",
      "url": "https://thinkingtoolsstudio.waterscenterst.org/courses/tools"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0340",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0341",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/ask-and-then-what-before-taking-the-first-order-win"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-1E80EF34BA7C785C",
      "title": "Choose a thinking tool from the shape of the problem",
      "url": "/collections/choose-a-thinking-tool-from-the-shape-of-the-problem"
    }
  ]
}