{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/graph-the-behavior-before-explaining-the-cause",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0342",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Graph the behavior before explaining the cause",
  "summary": "Before explaining the curve, draw the curve.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Choose the behavior that matters and sketch or plot how it changed over a meaningful time window. Mark important events or regime changes, then tell the factual story the shape supports before proposing causes. Add a second variable only when the comparison helps the question. The graph is a shared observation surface, not a causal verdict.",
  "limits": [
    "The selected metric, sampling and time window can distort the story; a behavior-over-time graph is evidence organization, not proof of causation."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-adaptive-thinking-tools"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-D295223796F1E7D5"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "The Waters Center presents behavior-over-time graphs as a tool for showing patterns and trends and for making assumptions about a system visible through the story of the graph.",
      "source_id": "RS-D295223796F1E7D5",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A graph makes a pattern inspectable but does not establish the cause of the pattern or guarantee that the chosen time window is representative.",
      "locator": "Tools Course #1: Behavior-Over-Time Graphs"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A team is arguing about why a recurring problem happens while nobody has made the pattern over time visible."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "The selected metric, sampling and time window can distort the story; a behavior-over-time graph is evidence organization, not proof of causation."
  ],
  "example": "Plot queue age across several release cycles before deciding that one slow week proves a permanent capacity problem.",
  "check": "Different people can point to the same visible change over time even if they still disagree about why it happened.",
  "steps": [
    "Name the behavior precisely enough to measure or estimate consistently.",
    "Choose a time window that includes the pattern you are trying to understand.",
    "Plot the behavior and annotate important events without drawing causal arrows yet.",
    "Describe the visible pattern before proposing structures or explanations.",
    "Change the window or add a comparison when the first graph could hide a different story."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-D295223796F1E7D5",
      "title": "Tools of Systems Thinking Courses",
      "url": "https://thinkingtoolsstudio.waterscenterst.org/courses/tools"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0342",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0339",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/move-from-the-event-down-the-systems-iceberg"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-1E80EF34BA7C785C",
      "title": "Choose a thinking tool from the shape of the problem",
      "url": "/collections/choose-a-thinking-tool-from-the-shape-of-the-problem"
    }
  ]
}