{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/sweep-one-uncertain-assumption-across-a-plausible-range",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0397",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Sweep one uncertain assumption across a plausible range",
  "summary": "A single estimate hides how much the answer depends on being lucky about the assumption.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Choose one material assumption and vary it across a defensible low-to-high range while holding the rest of the model fixed. Record how the value of each option changes. Repeat for the assumptions that matter most. This is a diagnostic of model sensitivity, not a forecast that every input will move independently.",
  "limits": [
    "One-at-a-time sensitivity can miss interactions; use broader scenario or probabilistic analysis when assumptions move together."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Decision analysis uses sensitivity analysis to examine how changes in uncertain inputs or assumptions affect model results.",
      "source_id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Changing one input at a time can miss interactions among assumptions.",
      "locator": "Sensitivity analysis"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A model output looks precise but depends on an uncertain input."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "One-at-a-time sensitivity can miss interactions; use broader scenario or probabilistic analysis when assumptions move together."
  ],
  "example": "Vary the expected migration effort from 10 to 30 days and see whether the preferred automation approach changes.",
  "check": "You know whether the decision remains the same across the plausible range or depends strongly on that assumption.",
  "steps": [
    "You know whether the decision remains the same across the plausible range or depends strongly on that assumption."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "title": "Fifty years of decision analysis in operational research: A review",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.05.023"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0397",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0398",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/find-the-assumption-value-where-the-choice-flips"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}