{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/find-the-assumption-value-where-the-choice-flips",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0398",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Find the assumption value where the choice flips",
  "summary": "The important number may not be your best estimate; it may be the number where you would choose differently.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "Solve for the threshold at which the preferred alternative changes. Then compare that switch point with the plausible range and current evidence. A decision can be robust even with uncertainty if the threshold is far away; conversely, a tiny plausible change can reveal that more information is valuable.",
  "limits": [
    "A threshold inherits every assumption in the model; do not give it false precision."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Sensitivity analysis can identify thresholds at which an assumption change alters the preferred alternative rather than only changing its numerical score.",
      "source_id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A threshold in a simplified model is not a physical law and should be tested against omitted uncertainties.",
      "locator": "Local sensitivity analysis and decision insights"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Two alternatives are close and an uncertain input appears to drive the recommendation."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A threshold inherits every assumption in the model; do not give it false precision."
  ],
  "example": "If a replacement platform is preferable only when migration effort stays below 14 days, the relevant research question is whether 14 days is plausible—not whether the mean estimate is 13.5.",
  "check": "The team can name the boundary that would change the decision and whether current uncertainty crosses it.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "title": "Fifty years of decision analysis in operational research: A review",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.05.023"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}