{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/rank-assumptions-by-decision-leverage",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0399",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Rank assumptions by decision leverage",
  "summary": "Not every uncertain number deserves equal research budget.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Vary each important input across its plausible range and record the resulting change in decision value. Rank the inputs by the size of that effect. Investigate the high-leverage assumptions first, especially when their ranges can cross a decision threshold.",
  "limits": [
    "Tornado-style rankings depend on chosen ranges and one-at-a-time variation; correlated inputs can change the ordering."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-CA9E4556A77CDF0D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "The 2025 decision-analysis handbook presents tornado diagrams as a way to display which inputs drive the largest changes in deterministic model value.",
      "source_id": "RS-CA9E4556A77CDF0D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "The ranking depends on the ranges chosen for each input, so implausible ranges can create misleading importance.",
      "locator": "Tornado diagram for deterministic sensitivity analysis"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A model contains many uncertain inputs and the team does not know which ones deserve analysis or evidence."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Tornado-style rankings depend on chosen ranges and one-at-a-time variation; correlated inputs can change the ordering."
  ],
  "example": "A cost model may show that implementation time matters far more than license price even though license price gets most of the discussion.",
  "check": "The next analysis or data-collection task targets an assumption capable of changing the decision.",
  "steps": [
    "Each input uses a defensible range rather than an arbitrary percentage.",
    "The same outcome/value measure is used for comparison.",
    "Inputs are ranked by impact on the decision, not by how uncertain they feel.",
    "Decision-flipping inputs are flagged separately from inputs that only change totals.",
    "Correlated inputs are noted for later joint analysis."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-CA9E4556A77CDF0D",
      "title": "Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights",
      "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781394283910.ch9"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0399",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0400",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/ask-what-perfect-information-could-change"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}