{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/ask-what-perfect-information-could-change",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0400",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Ask what perfect information could change",
  "summary": "Information has decision value only through a choice it can improve.",
  "kind": "question",
  "body": "Imagine learning the uncertain fact perfectly before you decide. Would you ever choose a different action? If not, the information has little or no value for this decision. If yes, identify the branches where it changes the action and use that to estimate how much effort better information may deserve.",
  "limits": [
    "A simple qualitative check is not a formal expected-value-of-information calculation and can miss rare high-consequence branches."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Value-of-information analysis compares the value of a decision made with additional information against the value of deciding without it.",
      "source_id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Formal value-of-information calculations require a coherent decision model and probability assumptions.",
      "locator": "Value of information"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "The team wants more research, testing or analysis before deciding."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A simple qualitative check is not a formal expected-value-of-information calculation and can miss rare high-consequence branches."
  ],
  "example": "If every plausible server-load estimate still leads to the same architecture choice, another week of load forecasting may add little decision value.",
  "check": "The requested information is linked to a specific possible change in action or is deprioritized.",
  "question": "If this uncertainty vanished completely, could the preferred action change? · Which outcome of the new information would change the choice? · How much better could that revised choice be? · Is there a cheaper decision or option that reduces the need for the information?",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-58F1FE5B31D54046",
      "title": "Fifty years of decision analysis in operational research: A review",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.05.023"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0400",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0401",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/stop-buying-certainty-that-cannot-change-the-choice"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}