{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/build-an-outside-view-reference-class",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0402",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Build an outside-view reference class",
  "summary": "Your plan is unique. Your kind of mistake often is not.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Find a set of past projects that are comparable on the features that drive the outcome, then inspect the distribution of actual cost, duration or failure. Use that distribution as an outside-view anchor before adjusting for specific differences in the current case. Record the selection rule so the class cannot be quietly changed after seeing the answer.",
  "limits": [
    "Reference class forecasting is sensitive to class selection and data comparability; recent review work highlights unresolved methodological limitations."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-E9B25C78E7287B34"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Reference class forecasting uses outcomes from comparable past projects as an outside view, but recent review work highlights unresolved issues around reference-class selection and applicability.",
      "source_id": "RS-E9B25C78E7287B34",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A badly chosen class can give a confident but irrelevant base rate.",
      "locator": "Systematic literature review and limitations"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A project estimate is being built mainly from the current team's internal plan and assumptions."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Reference class forecasting is sensitive to class selection and data comparability; recent review work highlights unresolved methodological limitations."
  ],
  "example": "Estimate a data-migration duration from comparable migrations with similar volume, interfaces and testing scope, not from the current task breakdown alone.",
  "check": "The forecast can show both the historical outcome distribution and the explicit reasons for departing from it.",
  "steps": [
    "The forecast target is defined consistently across cases.",
    "Reference projects share the drivers relevant to that target.",
    "Actual outcomes, not original plans, are used.",
    "The inclusion rule is written before inspecting the desired percentile.",
    "Case-specific adjustments are explicit and separately justified."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-E9B25C78E7287B34",
      "title": "Reference class forecasting: promises, problems, and a research agenda moving forward",
      "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09537287.2025.2578708"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0402",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0403",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/audit-the-reference-class-before-trusting-its-base-rate"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}