{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/define-the-forecast-event-before-assigning-a-probability",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0404",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Define the forecast event before assigning a probability",
  "summary": "A probability cannot rescue an event nobody defined.",
  "kind": "checklist",
  "body": "Specify the event, observation window, resolution source and ambiguous edge cases before writing the probability. For continuous outcomes, define the threshold or interval being forecast. This makes later scoring possible and prevents forecasters from changing the meaning after seeing what happened.",
  "limits": [
    "A precise event can still be based on poor evidence; resolution clarity improves evaluability, not forecast accuracy."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-decision-analysis-calibration"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-58E31CFFFB569015"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Strictly proper scoring rules are designed so that a forecaster minimizes expected loss by reporting their actual probability belief rather than strategically distorting it.",
      "source_id": "RS-58E31CFFFB569015",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A proper score rewards honest probabilistic reporting; it does not guarantee that the underlying belief is well informed.",
      "locator": "Definition and motivation of proper scoring rules"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "People are debating whether something is 'likely' without agreeing on exactly what would count as occurring."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A precise event can still be based on poor evidence; resolution clarity improves evaluability, not forecast accuracy."
  ],
  "example": "Replace 'the rollout will probably be stable' with 'there is a 70% chance that no Sev-1 rollback-triggering incident occurs during the first seven days after full rollout.'",
  "check": "A third party can determine the outcome later without asking the forecaster what they originally meant.",
  "checklist": [
    "A third party can determine the outcome later without asking the forecaster what they originally meant."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-58E31CFFFB569015",
      "title": "Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation",
      "url": "https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-050626"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0404",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0405",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/score-your-probability-forecasts-instead-of-remembering-the-wins"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3EA4A5EF5790DD81",
      "title": "Model the decision before buying more certainty",
      "url": "/collections/model-the-decision-before-buying-more-certainty"
    }
  ]
}