{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/estimate-active-effort-and-elapsed-time-separately",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0622",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Estimate active effort and elapsed time separately",
  "summary": "Two hours of work can still occupy three calendar days.",
  "kind": "principle",
  "body": "Estimate hands-on effort separately from elapsed time. Then list the waits, calendars and dependencies that turn effort into delivery time. Use effort for capacity planning and elapsed time for stakeholder commitments; do not substitute one for the other.",
  "limits": [
    "Wait times can dominate delivery and may be highly variable; do not pretend they are fixed just because the active work is well known."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "IPA cost-estimating guidance recommends documenting assumptions and representing uncertainty with reasonably optimistic, most-likely and reasonably pessimistic positions where appropriate.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Three-point estimates are inputs to judgment or modelling, not proof of a probability distribution.",
      "locator": "Estimate ranges and assumptions"
    },
    {
      "claim": "IPA guidance notes that uncertainty and estimate range depend on the maturity and variability of input data, so estimates should evolve as design and evidence mature.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A later estimate can still be wrong; maturity narrows uncertainty only when real information has improved.",
      "locator": "Estimate maturity and range"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A task contains approvals, queues or external waits and one duration number hides them."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Wait times can dominate delivery and may be highly variable; do not pretend they are fixed just because the active work is well known."
  ],
  "example": "A 90-minute data check needs a two-day elapsed window because the source owner may answer only next morning.",
  "check": "The forecast can explain why elapsed time differs from work effort.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "title": "Cost Estimating Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-estimating-guidance/cost-estimating-guidance"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0622",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0623",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/put-the-slow-external-dependency-on-the-forecast"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}