{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/use-a-range-when-the-uncertainty-is-asymmetric",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0624",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Use a range when the uncertainty is asymmetric",
  "summary": "A symmetric plus-or-minus can hide a long tail.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "When the downside and upside are not balanced, record reasonably optimistic, most-likely and reasonably pessimistic values rather than a central estimate with a cosmetic symmetric margin. State what assumption changes between the points.",
  "limits": [
    "Three points do not establish exact probabilities; avoid fake precision unless you have a defensible distribution."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "IPA cost-estimating guidance recommends documenting assumptions and representing uncertainty with reasonably optimistic, most-likely and reasonably pessimistic positions where appropriate.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Three-point estimates are inputs to judgment or modelling, not proof of a probability distribution.",
      "locator": "Estimate ranges and assumptions"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "The most likely duration is known but delays can be much larger than early finishes."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Three points do not establish exact probabilities; avoid fake precision unless you have a defensible distribution."
  ],
  "example": "A data cleanup may take 1 day if errors are already classified, 2 days most likely, and 5 days if manual reconciliation is required.",
  "check": "The range explains why the high side is wider or narrower than the low side.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "title": "Cost Estimating Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-estimating-guidance/cost-estimating-guidance"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0624",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0397",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/sweep-one-uncertain-assumption-across-a-plausible-range"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}