{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/attach-confidence-to-the-evidence-not-to-your-tone",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0628",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Attach confidence to the evidence, not to your tone",
  "summary": "Confidence should describe what is known, not how strongly the estimator speaks.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "State the evidence maturity behind the forecast: known scope, validated dependencies, available historical analogues and unresolved unknowns. Use a wider range or lower confidence when important inputs are still speculative, then narrow it when real uncertainty has been removed.",
  "limits": [
    "Ordinal confidence labels are editorial aids, not calibrated probabilities unless the team has defined and tested them."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "IPA guidance notes that uncertainty and estimate range depend on the maturity and variability of input data, so estimates should evolve as design and evidence mature.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A later estimate can still be wrong; maturity narrows uncertainty only when real information has improved.",
      "locator": "Estimate maturity and range"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A date is delivered confidently even though key inputs are still unknown."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Ordinal confidence labels are editorial aids, not calibrated probabilities unless the team has defined and tested them."
  ],
  "example": "A draft integration estimate stays wide until the external API and sample payload are tested.",
  "check": "A confidence statement names the evidence that supports it and what is still missing.",
  "steps": [
    "A confidence statement names the evidence that supports it and what is still missing."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "title": "Cost Estimating Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-estimating-guidance/cost-estimating-guidance"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0628",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0633",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/let-ranges-narrow-only-when-uncertainty-is-actually-removed"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}