{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/re-estimate-when-evidence-changes-not-when-anxiety-spikes",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0630",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Re-estimate when evidence changes, not when anxiety spikes",
  "summary": "A forecast should move because the model changed.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Define evidence triggers that justify revision: scope change, dependency delay, measured throughput, failed test, discovered rework or resolved uncertainty. Record the changed input and its effect on the range. Pressure can trigger a review, but it is not itself evidence.",
  "limits": [
    "Sometimes a commitment must change for business reasons even without new delivery evidence; label that as a commitment change, not a forecast discovery."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "IPA guidance notes that uncertainty and estimate range depend on the maturity and variability of input data, so estimates should evolve as design and evidence mature.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A later estimate can still be wrong; maturity narrows uncertainty only when real information has improved.",
      "locator": "Estimate maturity and range"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A team repeatedly changes the date in response to pressure without new information."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Sometimes a commitment must change for business reasons even without new delivery evidence; label that as a commitment change, not a forecast discovery."
  ],
  "example": "A failed data-quality check adds a reconciliation step, so the forecast moves; a manager asking twice does not.",
  "check": "Every material forecast change points to a changed input, assumption or risk state.",
  "steps": [
    "Every material forecast change points to a changed input, assumption or risk state."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "title": "Cost Estimating Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-estimating-guidance/cost-estimating-guidance"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}