{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/count-rework-as-a-forecast-component",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0631",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Count rework as a forecast component",
  "summary": "The second pass still consumes the calendar.",
  "kind": "checklist",
  "body": "For work with known review loops, estimate expected correction and revalidation effort explicitly rather than pretending first-pass acceptance is the default. Track why rework occurred so avoidable defects can be separated from normal iteration.",
  "limits": [
    "Do not normalize chronic avoidable defects as inevitable rework; use the data to improve the process."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-F874002E4A58CC3B",
    "RS-3AABED087865223D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "The 2026 Green Book recommends explicitly accounting for optimism bias in cost, benefit and duration estimates and using historical forecast errors from similar proposals where available.",
      "source_id": "RS-F874002E4A58CC3B",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "The guidance is for UK public appraisal; the transferable principle is empirical correction, not a universal percentage uplift.",
      "locator": "Optimism bias"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Supplementary Green Book optimism-bias guidance recommends basing adjustments on data from past or similar projects and collecting local data to improve future estimates.",
      "source_id": "RS-3AABED087865223D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Reference classes must be genuinely comparable; irrelevant historical projects can make an estimate worse.",
      "locator": "Introduction and making adjustments"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Plans assume work flows forward once, even when review and correction are normal."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Do not normalize chronic avoidable defects as inevitable rework; use the data to improve the process."
  ],
  "example": "A data migration estimate includes one validation-and-correction cycle instead of treating every failed row as an unforeseeable surprise.",
  "check": "The plan includes the repeat work that normally occurs in comparable deliveries.",
  "checklist": [
    "Review step included.",
    "Typical correction loop included.",
    "Revalidation included.",
    "Avoidable defect rework tagged separately.",
    "Unexpected rework captured for later learning."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-F874002E4A58CC3B",
      "title": "The Green Book (2026)",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government/the-green-book-2026"
    },
    {
      "id": "RS-3AABED087865223D",
      "title": "Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias",
      "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a74dae740f0b65f61322c72/Optimism_bias.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0631",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0635",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/explain-forecast-error-by-component"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}