{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/let-ranges-narrow-only-when-uncertainty-is-actually-removed",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0633",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Let ranges narrow only when uncertainty is actually removed",
  "summary": "Time passed is not evidence gained.",
  "kind": "principle",
  "body": "At each stage, identify which uncertainties were resolved and which remain. Narrow the range only when scope, design, dependencies or throughput have become materially better known. If new uncertainty appears, the honest range can widen again.",
  "limits": [
    "A wide range can be unhelpful if it never supports a decision; pair uncertainty with the next information that can reduce it."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-project-estimation-and-delivery-realism"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "IPA guidance notes that uncertainty and estimate range depend on the maturity and variability of input data, so estimates should evolve as design and evidence mature.",
      "source_id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A later estimate can still be wrong; maturity narrows uncertainty only when real information has improved.",
      "locator": "Estimate maturity and range"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A project gets older, so forecasts become narrower by convention even though key unknowns remain."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A wide range can be unhelpful if it never supports a decision; pair uncertainty with the next information that can reduce it."
  ],
  "example": "After a prototype validates the interface and throughput, the range narrows; after an unexpected compliance review appears, it widens again.",
  "check": "The width change has an evidence explanation.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-B3FC6B5B65061AB3",
      "title": "Cost Estimating Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-estimating-guidance/cost-estimating-guidance"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-3C67E080415E2677",
      "title": "Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work",
      "url": "/collections/estimate-the-delivery-system-not-only-the-hands-on-work"
    }
  ]
}