{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/list-the-load-bearing-assumptions-before-adding-confidence",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0734",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "List the load-bearing assumptions before adding confidence",
  "summary": "Confidence often sits on assumptions that have never been inspected.",
  "kind": "checklist",
  "body": "List the assumptions that must hold for the conclusion to remain useful. Mark each as observed, inferred or merely convenient. Then ask which assumption would change the decision fastest if it failed. Investigate that one first.",
  "limits": [
    "Not every premise can be verified cheaply. The aim is to expose leverage, not eliminate uncertainty."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "The primer presents structured analytic techniques as aids for complex, incomplete and ambiguous analysis rather than as substitutes for judgment.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "The techniques structure reasoning; they do not guarantee accuracy.",
      "locator": "Introduction and strategies for using structured analytic techniques"
    },
    {
      "claim": "A Key Assumptions Check makes premises explicit so analysts can inspect their validity and sensitivity to change.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "An assumption list is only useful if important premises are actually surfaced and revisited.",
      "locator": "Diagnostic Techniques: Key Assumptions Check"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A recommendation feels coherent but depends on premises nobody has written down."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Not every premise can be verified cheaply. The aim is to expose leverage, not eliminate uncertainty."
  ],
  "example": "A migration plan assumes source volume, mapping stability and a four-hour window. The window assumption has the highest decision leverage, so test it first.",
  "check": "At least one assumption is tied to evidence or a planned test rather than remaining implicit.",
  "checklist": [
    "What must be true for this conclusion to hold?",
    "Which premise is inferred rather than observed?",
    "Which assumption is most decision-sensitive?",
    "What signal would show it has failed?"
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0734",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0735",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/write-competing-explanations-before-scoring-the-favorite"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}