{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/write-competing-explanations-before-scoring-the-favorite",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0735",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Write competing explanations before scoring the favorite",
  "summary": "A hypothesis deserves competition before it deserves confidence.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Generate several plausible explanations at the same level of abstraction before evaluating any of them. Include at least one explanation that would require a different action. Avoid straw alternatives that exist only to make the favorite look good.",
  "limits": [
    "More hypotheses are not automatically better. Stop when additions become duplicates or implausible edge cases."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses compares multiple explanations against evidence and pays particular attention to inconsistent or discriminating evidence.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Matrix judgments remain subjective and depend on the quality and completeness of evidence and hypotheses.",
      "locator": "Diagnostic Techniques: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "One explanation arrived early and every new fact is being interpreted through it."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "More hypotheses are not automatically better. Stop when additions become duplicates or implausible edge cases."
  ],
  "example": "Slow processing could come from data volume, a locking pattern or downstream throttling; each implies a different test.",
  "check": "The alternatives could realistically explain the observations and would not all produce the same next action.",
  "steps": [
    "The alternatives could realistically explain the observations and would not all produce the same next action."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0735",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0736",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/build-an-evidence-by-hypothesis-matrix"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}