{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/build-an-evidence-by-hypothesis-matrix",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0736",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Build an evidence-by-hypothesis matrix",
  "summary": "Put the same evidence against every hypothesis.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Create a matrix with evidence rows and competing hypotheses as columns. For each cell, mark whether the evidence is expected, inconsistent, neutral or unknown under that hypothesis. Focus on contradictions and information quality rather than a simple vote of supporting facts.",
  "limits": [
    "Cell ratings are judgments. Document ambiguous evidence and do not convert the matrix into fake precision."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses compares multiple explanations against evidence and pays particular attention to inconsistent or discriminating evidence.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Matrix judgments remain subjective and depend on the quality and completeness of evidence and hypotheses.",
      "locator": "Diagnostic Techniques: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Several explanations are plausible and discussion keeps counting supporting anecdotes."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Cell ratings are judgments. Document ambiguous evidence and do not convert the matrix into fake precision."
  ],
  "example": "An error appears only after a specific transport. That is inconsistent with a persistent master-data defect but expected under a transport-dependent configuration hypothesis.",
  "check": "The matrix exposes at least one piece of evidence that treats hypotheses differently.",
  "steps": [
    "The matrix exposes at least one piece of evidence that treats hypotheses differently."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0736",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0737",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/search-for-evidence-that-can-separate-the-explanations"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}