{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/search-for-evidence-that-can-separate-the-explanations",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0737",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Search for evidence that can separate the explanations",
  "summary": "More evidence is not the same as more discrimination.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "For each pair of serious hypotheses, ask what observation would differ if one were true and the other false. Prioritize the cheapest safe observation with the largest ability to separate them. Stop collecting evidence that every hypothesis predicts equally well.",
  "limits": [
    "Some hypotheses are observationally hard to separate; record the residual ambiguity instead of manufacturing certainty."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses compares multiple explanations against evidence and pays particular attention to inconsistent or discriminating evidence.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Matrix judgments remain subjective and depend on the quality and completeness of evidence and hypotheses.",
      "locator": "Diagnostic Techniques: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "The team has accumulated a large amount of evidence but confidence is not improving."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Some hypotheses are observationally hard to separate; record the residual ambiguity instead of manufacturing certainty."
  ],
  "example": "If latency comes from the database, a read-only query should slow with it; if it comes from the integration queue, database timing should stay stable while queue age rises.",
  "check": "The next evidence request has a stated expected result under more than one hypothesis.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}