{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/give-the-favored-judgment-a-real-devil-s-advocate",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0738",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Give the favored judgment a real devil's advocate",
  "summary": "Challenge works only when the alternative is allowed to be serious.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "After independent initial judgments, assign someone to build the strongest evidence-based case against the favored conclusion. Give them the same information and enough time to identify assumptions, counter-evidence and failure conditions. The role is to improve the judgment, not to win an argument.",
  "limits": [
    "Rotate the role and preserve independent first judgments; a permanent contrarian can become predictable rather than useful."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Devil's Advocacy and Red Team Analysis are contrarian techniques intended to challenge a dominant view or examine a problem from a different perspective.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Adversarial challenge can become theater if the challenger lacks independence, information or a genuine alternative model.",
      "locator": "Contrarian Techniques; Imaginative Thinking Techniques"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A group is converging quickly on one recommendation and dissent has become socially expensive."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Rotate the role and preserve independent first judgments; a permanent contrarian can become predictable rather than useful."
  ],
  "example": "Before approving a cutover, one reviewer argues the case for delaying it using unresolved rollback, data-volume and staffing risks.",
  "check": "The challenge contains evidence and a coherent alternative, not generic negativity.",
  "steps": [
    "What is the favored conclusion?",
    "Which assumption is easiest to attack?",
    "What contrary evidence has been discounted?",
    "What alternative action becomes rational if the challenge is right?"
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0738",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0736",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/build-an-evidence-by-hypothesis-matrix"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}