{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/define-update-indicators-before-the-situation-moves",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0740",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Define update indicators before the situation moves",
  "summary": "Write the evidence that would make you update while you are still calm.",
  "kind": "template",
  "body": "List a small set of observable indicators that would strengthen, weaken or invalidate the current judgment. Give each a source, review cadence and update rule. Prefer indicators with a clear link to the hypothesis rather than convenient dashboard metrics.",
  "limits": [
    "Indicators can lag, be manipulated or lose relevance. Review the indicator set when the model changes."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Indicators or signposts can be defined in advance to track whether a situation is moving toward or away from an analytic judgment.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Indicators need updating and can be noisy; absence of a signpost is not proof that a scenario is impossible.",
      "locator": "Diagnostic Techniques: Indicators or Signposts of Change"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "You have a forecast or working judgment that will become stale as the environment changes."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Indicators can lag, be manipulated or lose relevance. Review the indicator set when the model changes."
  ],
  "example": "Judgment: the launch window remains feasible. Indicator: unresolved critical defects. Update if more than two remain 48 hours before freeze.",
  "check": "At least one indicator would force a change in the current judgment rather than merely provide more context.",
  "template": "Judgment: [current view]. Indicator: [observable]. Source: [source]. Update if: [condition]. Review: [cadence].",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0740",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0736",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/build-an-evidence-by-hypothesis-matrix"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}