{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/stress-test-the-high-impact-scenario-without-calling-it-likely",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0741",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Stress-test the high-impact scenario without calling it likely",
  "summary": "Severity deserves preparation; it does not deserve a fake probability.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Describe the scenario, what would have to be true, the earliest indicators, the main consequence and a proportionate hedge or contingency. Keep probability and impact separate. Do not let a vivid worst case hijack the base case.",
  "limits": [
    "Worst-case imagination can inflate fear. Pair this technique with base rates, sensitivity analysis and ordinary expected scenarios."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-structured-challenge-analysis"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "High-impact/low-probability analysis explores consequential scenarios without asserting that they are likely.",
      "source_id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Scenario severity should not be confused with probability.",
      "locator": "Contrarian Techniques: High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "A low-probability scenario would be expensive enough that ignoring it could be reckless."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Worst-case imagination can inflate fear. Pair this technique with base rates, sensitivity analysis and ordinary expected scenarios."
  ],
  "example": "A critical vendor outage during cutover is not the base case, but a tested rollback and offline contact path may be cheap enough to justify.",
  "check": "The mitigation is proportionate to uncertainty and impact, and the scenario is not being presented as a forecast.",
  "steps": [
    "The mitigation is proportionate to uncertainty and impact, and the scenario is not being presented as a forecast."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-05770F7D21F1A20D",
      "title": "A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0741",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-0740",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/define-update-indicators-before-the-situation-moves"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-7D3416BDD06B3913",
      "title": "Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens",
      "url": "/collections/challenge-the-leading-explanation-before-confidence-hardens"
    }
  ]
}