{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/turn-a-disputed-forecast-into-an-observable-condition",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-1003",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Turn a disputed forecast into an observable condition",
  "summary": "You may not need the same forecast. You need terms that survive both forecasts.",
  "kind": "template",
  "body": "Specify how the arrangement changes when an observable outcome occurs. Agree the measurement, cutoff and response before relying on the condition. A contingent agreement converts a forecast dispute into a design question; it does not make uncertainty disappear.",
  "limits": [
    "Avoid incentives that reward gaming or punish events outside someone's control. Contractual terms need appropriate legal review; reluctance to accept a condition is not proof of lying."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "work-04-negotiation-options"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-E5DB04968DDCFCE1"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Contingent agreements make terms depend on specified future outcomes rather than requiring both parties to share the same forecast.",
      "source_id": "RS-E5DB04968DDCFCE1",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Measurability, incentives, affordability and enforceability remain separate problems; disagreement is not proof of dishonesty.",
      "locator": "Opening explanation"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Agreement is blocked because the parties predict different future outcomes."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Avoid incentives that reward gaming or punish events outside someone's control. Contractual terms need appropriate legal review; reluctance to accept a condition is not proof of lying."
  ],
  "example": "A pilot expands only after its agreed acceptance checks pass; otherwise the parties review the evidence before adding scope.",
  "check": "An uninvolved reviewer could determine which condition occurred from the agreed evidence.",
  "template": "If [observable outcome] is confirmed by [measurement] at [cutoff], then [agreed response]. If the result is disputed or unavailable, use [review route].",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-E5DB04968DDCFCE1",
      "title": "What is a Contingent Contract?",
      "url": "https://www.pon.harvard.edu/tag/contingent-contract/"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-1003",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-1006",
      "type": "compare_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/name-the-exchange-before-making-a-conditional-concession"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28A6D332BD245B5A",
      "title": "Negotiate more than the number",
      "url": "/collections/negotiate-more-than-the-number"
    }
  ]
}