{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/use-a-behavior-over-time-view-before-root-cause-stories",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9127",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Use a behavior-over-time view before root-cause stories",
  "summary": "Patterns over time constrain causal stories.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Plot or reconstruct the variable over a meaningful horizon, mark interventions and regime changes, then ask which candidate mechanisms could produce that shape.",
  "limits": [
    "A causal map is a hypothesis, not proof. Keep evidence, time scale, boundary choices and alternative explanations visible before acting on a loop."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-592B2C21A3CDE468"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "System dynamics work emphasizes that well-intended interventions can be defeated by feedback-driven system responses, a pattern described as policy resistance.",
      "source_id": "RS-592B2C21A3CDE468",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "A qualitative feedback story is not enough; links, delays and predicted behavior still need empirical or operational checking.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When a current snapshot is driving a confident explanation of a dynamic problem."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A causal map is a hypothesis, not proof. Keep evidence, time scale, boundary choices and alternative explanations visible before acting on a loop."
  ],
  "example": "A backlog spike began before the new release, weakening the claim that the release alone caused it.",
  "check": "The preferred explanation fits the timing and shape better than alternatives, not just the latest observation.",
  "steps": [
    "Choose the key outcome variable.",
    "Plot its history at a useful cadence.",
    "Mark major interventions or boundary changes.",
    "Reject explanations inconsistent with the observed timing."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-592B2C21A3CDE468",
      "title": "System Dynamics Modeling: Tools for Learning in a Complex World",
      "url": "https://cmr.berkeley.edu/2001/08/43-4-system-dynamics-modeling-tools-for-learning-in-a-complex-world/"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9127",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9128",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/turn-the-causal-map-into-a-testable-model-question"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}