{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/turn-the-causal-map-into-a-testable-model-question",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9128",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Turn the causal map into a testable model question",
  "summary": "A map earns value by making discriminating predictions or measurements possible.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Pick one disputed link or loop and state what observation, intervention or time pattern would strengthen or weaken it. Attach provenance to the link.",
  "limits": [
    "A causal map is a hypothesis, not proof. Keep evidence, time scale, boundary choices and alternative explanations visible before acting on a loop."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "A review of causal-loop-diagram publications found incomplete reporting of development methods and causal-link sources, supporting explicit provenance for qualitative causal maps.",
      "source_id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Transparency improves inspectability but does not establish that a stated causal link is true.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When a systems diagram contains many arrows but no way to learn whether it is useful."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A causal map is a hypothesis, not proof. Keep evidence, time scale, boundary choices and alternative explanations visible before acting on a loop."
  ],
  "example": "If approval delay drives late defects, reducing that delay in one comparable stream should shift defect timing; if not, the loop needs revision.",
  "check": "At least one causal claim can be challenged by evidence rather than protected by diagram complexity.",
  "steps": [
    "Choose the highest-leverage uncertain link.",
    "State the predicted direction and time scale.",
    "Name evidence that would contradict it.",
    "Record the source or reasoning behind the link."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "title": "Strengthening a Weak Link: Transparency of Causal Loop Diagrams—Current State and Recommendations",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1753"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9128",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9129",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/measure-arrival-rate-work-in-progress-and-cycle-time-together"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}