{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/stop-asking-for-one-forecast-under-deep-uncertainty",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9149",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Stop asking for one forecast under deep uncertainty",
  "summary": "Some decisions need robustness rather than a single best estimate.",
  "kind": "principle",
  "body": "When uncertainty is deep, define the decision and outcomes first, then examine multiple plausible conditions. Use point forecasts only where they are decision-useful and defensible.",
  "limits": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-15A56C0780287A5A"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Robust Decision Making uses exploratory analysis to stress-test strategies over many plausible futures and seek strategies that perform acceptably across uncertainty rather than optimizing a single prediction.",
      "source_id": "RS-15A56C0780287A5A",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Full RDM can require substantial modeling; lightweight cards should not claim equivalent rigor.",
      "locator": "Abstract and method overview"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When important assumptions cannot be assigned trustworthy probabilities or the environment can change structurally."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "example": "Instead of assuming one AI cost curve for a three-year platform choice, the team tests options under cheap, expensive and constrained-compute futures.",
  "check": "The strategy does not depend on pretending one deeply uncertain forecast is known.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-15A56C0780287A5A",
      "title": "Robust Decision Making (RDM)",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_2"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9149",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9150",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/identify-uncertainties-that-can-reverse-the-strategy"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}