{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/build-scenarios-around-critical-uncertainties-not-storytelling",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9151",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Build scenarios around critical uncertainties, not storytelling",
  "summary": "Scenarios should expose decision-relevant variation.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "Choose a small set of high-impact uncertainties, construct internally coherent combinations, and state what each scenario would mean for the decision. Add only detail that changes action or reveals assumptions.",
  "limits": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-6E746117B9D9E3D3"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Scenario planning uses trends and critical uncertainties to construct multiple plausible futures and is intended to counter overconfidence and tunnel vision in strategic thinking.",
      "source_id": "RS-6E746117B9D9E3D3",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Scenarios are not forecasts, probabilities or evidence that a vivid story is likely.",
      "locator": "Article summary"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When scenario workshops produce vivid narratives that do not change decisions."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "example": "Four scenarios vary regulatory openness and model cost because those dimensions change product architecture and distribution strategy.",
  "check": "Each scenario produces a different stress on the strategy or a different adaptation question.",
  "steps": [
    "Select critical uncertainties.",
    "Construct distinct coherent combinations.",
    "Describe decision-relevant consequences.",
    "Remove decorative details that do not affect action."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-6E746117B9D9E3D3",
      "title": "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking",
      "url": "https://shop.sloanreview.mit.edu/store/scenario-planning-a-tool-for-strategic-thinking"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9151",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9152",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/stress-test-one-strategy-across-many-plausible-futures"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}