{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/stage-irreversible-commitments",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9156",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Stage irreversible commitments",
  "summary": "Commit in increments when learning is valuable and delay is affordable.",
  "kind": "principle",
  "body": "Separate reversible from irreversible parts, commit only what is needed now, and attach later gates to evidence. Account for the cost of waiting as well as the value of learning.",
  "limits": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-15A56C0780287A5A"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Robust Decision Making uses exploratory analysis to stress-test strategies over many plausible futures and seek strategies that perform acceptably across uncertainty rather than optimizing a single prediction.",
      "source_id": "RS-15A56C0780287A5A",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Full RDM can require substantial modeling; lightweight cards should not claim equivalent rigor.",
      "locator": "Abstract and method overview"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When a strategy contains decisions that are costly or impossible to reverse while key uncertainty may resolve later."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "example": "Lease capacity for the first year and delay a custom data-center commitment until usage and margin are better known.",
  "check": "The plan preserves learning without pretending delay is free.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-15A56C0780287A5A",
      "title": "Robust Decision Making (RDM)",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_2"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9156",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9157",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/preserve-options-when-information-is-coming-soon"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}