{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/preserve-options-when-information-is-coming-soon",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9157",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Preserve options when information is coming soon",
  "summary": "Optionality can be valuable under unresolved uncertainty.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "Identify what future information will arrive, which choices each option preserves, and the premium paid for flexibility. Preserve options only when the likely decision value justifies the premium.",
  "limits": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-73338CFF3D09E501"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Value-of-information analysis estimates the expected benefit of collecting further information and can help prioritize which uncertainties deserve more research.",
      "source_id": "RS-73338CFF3D09E501",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Simplified workplace heuristics do not compute formal EVPI or EVSI and should be used as prioritization prompts only.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When two paths have similar current value but one keeps more future choices open at modest cost."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers."
  ],
  "example": "Use a portable data format for six months because vendor economics are uncertain and migration cost would otherwise become irreversible.",
  "check": "The flexibility premium is compared with a plausible future decision benefit.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-73338CFF3D09E501",
      "title": "Value of Information Analysis in Models to Inform Health Policy",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040120-010730"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9157",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9158",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/use-regret-as-a-cross-scenario-lens-not-prophecy"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}