{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/stop-research-when-expected-decision-value-is-low",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9165",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Stop research when expected decision value is low",
  "summary": "Not every uncertainty deserves resolution.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "If new information is unlikely to change the decision, the remaining error cost is small, or delay costs more than likely learning, stop researching and act with monitoring.",
  "limits": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-73338CFF3D09E501"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Value-of-information analysis estimates the expected benefit of collecting further information and can help prioritize which uncertainties deserve more research.",
      "source_id": "RS-73338CFF3D09E501",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Simplified workplace heuristics do not compute formal EVPI or EVSI and should be used as prioritization prompts only.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When the team keeps reducing uncertainty after the preferred action is stable across plausible findings."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "example": "The precise error rate remains uncertain, but every plausible estimate still supports the same reversible pilot; further analysis is deferred.",
  "check": "A stated stop rule ends analysis without claiming uncertainty disappeared.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-73338CFF3D09E501",
      "title": "Value of Information Analysis in Models to Inform Health Policy",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040120-010730"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9165",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9166",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/make-causal-diagrams-traceable-to-evidence"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}