{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/make-causal-diagrams-traceable-to-evidence",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9166",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Make causal diagrams traceable to evidence",
  "summary": "Traceability separates hypotheses from supported links.",
  "kind": "checklist",
  "body": "For each decision-critical causal link, record whether it comes from data, experiment, literature, domain observation or assumption. Mark disputed and weak links visibly.",
  "limits": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "A review of causal-loop-diagram publications found incomplete reporting of development methods and causal-link sources, supporting explicit provenance for qualitative causal maps.",
      "source_id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Transparency improves inspectability but does not establish that a stated causal link is true.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When a systems map looks authoritative but the origin of its arrows is unclear."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "example": "The map labels 'approval delay → batching' as a domain hypothesis and links 'WIP → cycle time' to measured flow data.",
  "check": "A reviewer can tell which arrows are measured, sourced or speculative.",
  "checklist": [
    "Choose decision-critical links.",
    "Attach evidence or provenance to each.",
    "Mark assumptions and disagreement.",
    "Prioritize weak high-leverage links for testing."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "title": "Strengthening a Weak Link: Transparency of Causal Loop Diagrams—Current State and Recommendations",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1753"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9166",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9167",
      "type": "use_before",
      "url": "/knowledge/track-leading-signals-tied-to-the-mechanism"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}