{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/track-leading-signals-tied-to-the-mechanism",
  "id": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9167",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "title": "Track leading signals tied to the mechanism",
  "summary": "A useful leading indicator sits on the causal path.",
  "kind": "protocol",
  "body": "From the hypothesized mechanism, select an earlier observable variable that should move before the final outcome. Test whether it actually predicts or explains later performance before relying on it.",
  "limits": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "union-systems-strategy-and-leverage-thinking"
  ],
  "intents": [],
  "source_ids": [
    "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "A review of causal-loop-diagram publications found incomplete reporting of development methods and causal-link sources, supporting explicit provenance for qualitative causal maps.",
      "source_id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Transparency improves inspectability but does not establish that a stated causal link is true.",
      "locator": "Abstract"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "When a strategy is judged only by lagging outcomes that arrive too late to correct."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes."
  ],
  "example": "If early validation is meant to reduce activation defects, track pre-activation unresolved exceptions before waiting for post-go-live incident counts.",
  "check": "The leading signal is mechanistically linked and empirically checked, not chosen because it is easy to count.",
  "steps": [
    "State the causal mechanism.",
    "Choose an upstream observable signal.",
    "Define expected timing and direction.",
    "Validate against later outcomes."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "RS-F0B23C5DAFDDFADF",
      "title": "Strengthening a Weak Link: Transparency of Causal Loop Diagrams—Current State and Recommendations",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1753"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9167",
      "to": "MHC-D-RESEARCH-9168",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/end-strategy-reviews-with-continue-adapt-or-stop"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "RC-28D91C30CEA1CB4A",
      "title": "Systems and strategic leverage: feedback, flow, modularity, robust options, and information value",
      "url": "/collections/systems-and-strategic-leverage-feedback-flow-modularity-robust-options-and-information-value"
    }
  ]
}