{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/anchoring-effect",
  "id": "MHC-U-9C0A00000002",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "title": "Anchoring effect",
  "summary": "The first number has an unfair talent for becoming the centre of the conversation.",
  "kind": "concept",
  "body": "Anchoring is the pull of a starting number on a later estimate. The number may be useful evidence, or it may be little more than a suggestion wearing a suit. The question is whether it earned the weight your final estimate gives it.",
  "limits": [
    "A first number can be genuinely informative. Seeing it first does not make it a bad anchor or prove that anchoring occurred.",
    "Do not use a bias label to diagnose or discredit a person."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "decision-making",
    "workplace-decisions"
  ],
  "intents": [
    "understand-a-decision"
  ],
  "source_ids": [
    "MHC-S-9C0A00000002"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Numerical anchoring research examines how a comparison with a starting number can influence a later judgment; reported effects vary across conditions.",
      "source_id": "MHC-S-9C0A00000002",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Supports the existence and condition dependence of anchoring effects; does not validate the corpus procedure.",
      "locator": "Publisher abstract and article summary"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "Use it when a price, target, score, deadline, or AI estimate appeared before the final judgment."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "A first number can be genuinely informative. Seeing it first does not make it a bad anchor or prove that anchoring occurred."
  ],
  "example": "A sponsor says a project should take ten days. The team later estimates eleven, although comparable work usually takes three weeks. Ten may be relevant, but it should not become the baseline without evidence.",
  "check": "Remove the starting number from your reasoning. What evidence still supports the final estimate, and what would you estimate from comparable cases or a separate method?",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "MHC-S-9C0A00000002",
      "title": "Fifty Years of Anchoring Effects: A Theoretical Reintegration and Meta-Analysis",
      "url": "https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03238",
      "authors": [
        "Dan R. Schley",
        "Evan Weingarten"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-U-9C0A00000002",
      "to": "MHC-U-9C0A00000003",
      "type": "compare_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/framing-effect"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "MHC-B-9C0A00000001",
      "title": "Check a decision before you commit",
      "url": "/collections/check-a-decision-before-you-commit"
    }
  ]
}