{
  "schema": "vedokrok.public-item.v1",
  "release_id": "MHC-RPUB-20260920-75ad787a",
  "url": "/knowledge/estimate-before-the-number-arrives",
  "id": "MHC-U-9C0A00000005",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "title": "Estimate before the number arrives",
  "summary": "Give yourself a reference point before someone else — or an AI — gives you one.",
  "kind": "heuristic",
  "body": "Before you see a suggested number, write your own range and the assumptions behind it. Then compare evidence, not authority. If the new estimate reveals something you missed, update. If it only supplies a number, that is not yet a reason.",
  "limits": [
    "If you already saw the number, do not reconstruct an 'independent' estimate after the fact. Use separate evidence or another estimator and disclose the exposure.",
    "This general reasoning aid does not replace professional advice in high-stakes decisions."
  ],
  "topics": [
    "decision-making",
    "structured-comparison",
    "workplace-decisions"
  ],
  "intents": [
    "review-a-decision"
  ],
  "source_ids": [
    "MHC-S-9C0A00000002"
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Numerical anchoring research examines how a comparison with a starting number can influence a later judgment; reported effects vary across conditions.",
      "source_id": "MHC-S-9C0A00000002",
      "role": "supports",
      "note": "Supports the existence and condition dependence of anchoring effects; does not validate the corpus procedure.",
      "locator": "Publisher abstract and article summary"
    }
  ],
  "use_when": [
    "You need a numerical estimate and have not yet seen the suggested number."
  ],
  "avoid_when": [
    "If you already saw the number, do not reconstruct an 'independent' estimate after the fact. Use separate evidence or another estimator and disclose the exposure."
  ],
  "steps": [
    "Define the quantity, units, scope, and time period.",
    "Use comparable cases or a task breakdown to write a range and key assumptions.",
    "Read the suggested number. Compare its assumptions and evidence with yours.",
    "Keep both estimates and record why you changed — or did not change — your view. Compare them with the eventual outcome when possible."
  ],
  "example": "A team records a delivery range before opening an AI estimate. The model points out a real dependency the team missed, so the range changes. The useful input was the dependency, not the fact that software produced a number.",
  "check": "Was the first range recorded before exposure? Can every later change be traced to new evidence or an explicit assumption?",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "MHC-S-9C0A00000002",
      "title": "Fifty Years of Anchoring Effects: A Theoretical Reintegration and Meta-Analysis",
      "url": "https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03238",
      "authors": [
        "Dan R. Schley",
        "Evan Weingarten"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": "MHC-U-9C0A00000005",
      "to": "MHC-U-9C0A00000002",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/anchoring-effect"
    },
    {
      "from": "MHC-U-9C0A00000005",
      "to": "MHC-U-9C0A00000006",
      "type": "useful_with",
      "url": "/knowledge/flip-the-frame-keep-the-facts"
    }
  ],
  "collections": [
    {
      "id": "MHC-B-9C0A00000001",
      "title": "Check a decision before you commit",
      "url": "/collections/check-a-decision-before-you-commit"
    }
  ]
}