Concept
Keep the condition attached to a p-value
The small number does not answer every question that can be phrased with 'chance'.
When it fits
- Someone describes a p-value as the chance that a finding is false or happened by accident.
When to avoid it
- A small p-value cannot repair biased measurement, undisclosed analysis selection or an irrelevant outcome.
The idea
A p-value asks how unusual a statistic at least this extreme would be under a specified null model. It does not reverse that statement into the probability that the null is true. Read it alongside the design, effect estimate, uncertainty and analysis choices.
An example
A p-value of 0.03 does not mean a 3% chance that the study's conclusion is wrong.
Check your result
The explanation preserves the conditional model rather than inventing a probability of truth.
Keep this limit in mind
- A small p-value cannot repair biased measurement, undisclosed analysis selection or an irrelevant outcome.
Evidence and sources
Supports
A p-value is calculated from the probability of a statistic at least as extreme as observed under the specified null model.
Reversing that conditional statement does not yield the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
Critical Values and p Values · p-values