Protocol
Price the next piece of information before researching it
Information has value only relative to a decision.
When it fits
- When analysis continues because more data is available, not because it can change the decision.
When to avoid it
- Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes.
Why it matters
Before collecting more evidence, state which decision could change, the plausible actions under different findings, and the maximum effort worth spending. Use formal VOI only when stakes justify it.
Steps
- Name the unresolved decision.
- State how possible findings would change action.
- Estimate the cost of being wrong or delayed.
- Set a research budget or stop rule.
An example
Before a week-long benchmark, ask whether any realistic result would change the selected architecture; if not, skip it.
Check your result
Research effort is tied to a decision that could actually change.
Keep this limit in mind
- Leverage-point and information-value heuristics are prompts, not guaranteed effect sizes. Test interventions, monitor side effects and stop when evidence changes.
Connected ideas
Useful withStop research when expected decision value is low
Evidence and sources
Supports
Value-of-information analysis estimates the expected benefit of collecting further information and can help prioritize which uncertainties deserve more research.
Simplified workplace heuristics do not compute formal EVPI or EVSI and should be used as prioritization prompts only.
Value of Information Analysis in Models to Inform Health Policy · Abstract