Collection
Choose a thinking tool from the shape of the problem
Use a small set of sense-making tools to distinguish ordered, complex and fast-changing situations, expose system structure and give difficult decisions the right amount of thought.
8 elements · Explore in any order.
2 heuristics · 1 principle · 5 protocols
8 elements
Classify the situation before choosing the method
A checklist, expert analysis and experiment can all be excellent—and still be the wrong first move.
Read the idea ProtocolUse small safe-to-learn probes in complex situations
When prediction is weak, buy information before buying the whole solution.
Read the idea PrincipleStabilize chaos before asking for a complete explanation
In a fire, the first question is not which theory of combustion the meeting prefers.
Read the idea ProtocolCycle through OODA when the environment keeps moving
The useful plan may be the one that expects to be revised.
Read the idea ProtocolMove from the event down the systems iceberg
The visible incident may be the smallest part of the problem.
Read the idea ProtocolDraw a connection circle when causes chase each other
Some problems are not chains. They are loops wearing a chain's costume.
Read the idea HeuristicAsk 'and then what?' before taking the first-order win
The first consequence gets the headline. The second one often sends the invoice.
Read the idea ProtocolGraph the behavior before explaining the cause
Before explaining the curve, draw the curve.
Read the idea