Protocol
Move from the event down the systems iceberg
The visible incident may be the smallest part of the problem.
When it fits
- A recurring problem keeps producing local fixes without changing the pattern.
When to avoid it
- Do not present an inferred 'mental model' as a fact about another person; verify assumptions and prefer observable structures first.
Why it matters
Start with the event, then ask what pattern appears over time, what structures make that pattern likely, and what assumptions or mental models help preserve those structures. Treat each deeper layer as a hypothesis to check against evidence. The point is to widen the intervention space beyond repairing the latest occurrence.
Steps
- The analysis produces at least one structural hypothesis that could be tested or changed beyond the immediate event.
An example
Repeated urgent data fixes may point beyond individual mistakes to ownership, validation and release structures that keep producing them.
Check your result
The analysis produces at least one structural hypothesis that could be tested or changed beyond the immediate event.
Keep this limit in mind
- Do not present an inferred 'mental model' as a fact about another person; verify assumptions and prefer observable structures first.
Connected ideas
Useful withDraw a connection circle when causes chase each other
Evidence and sources
The Donella Meadows Project presents the iceberg model as connecting a visible event to patterns of behavior, system structures and underlying mental models.
The deeper layers are prompts for investigation and should not be presented as established causes without evidence.
Systems Thinking Resources · The Iceberg Model