Collection
Estimate the delivery system, not only the hands-on work
Build project forecasts that preserve scope, active effort, waits, dependencies, rework, residual risk, confidence and historical error so priority and optimism do not silently become shorter dates.
16 elements · Explore in any order.
2 checklists · 1 heuristic · 6 principles · 6 protocols · 1 template
16 elements
Define the estimate object before estimating it
An estimate without an object is confidence attached to fog.
Read the idea PrincipleEstimate active effort and elapsed time separately
Two hours of work can still occupy three calendar days.
Read the idea ChecklistPut the slow external dependency on the forecast
The calendar belongs partly to whoever must answer next.
Read the idea HeuristicUse a range when the uncertainty is asymmetric
A symmetric plus-or-minus can hide a long tail.
Read the idea ProtocolBuild contingency from named residual risks
A round buffer is easy to add and hard to learn from.
Read the idea PrincipleKeep mitigation work out of the hidden buffer
Planned risk reduction is still planned work.
Read the idea PrincipleSeparate the forecast from the commitment
A forecast describes uncertainty; a commitment adds a decision and consequence.
Read the idea ProtocolAttach confidence to the evidence, not to your tone
Confidence should describe what is known, not how strongly the estimator speaks.
Read the idea ProtocolPin the scope snapshot to every material forecast
A forecast can be wrong; it can also be about a different job.
Read the idea ProtocolRe-estimate when evidence changes, not when anxiety spikes
A forecast should move because the model changed.
Read the idea ChecklistCount rework as a forecast component
The second pass still consumes the calendar.
Read the idea PrincipleEstimate approvals and integration as deliverables
A feature is not delivered when only its middle is done.
Read the idea PrincipleLet ranges narrow only when uncertainty is actually removed
Time passed is not evidence gained.
Read the idea PrincipleKeep priority pressure separate from feasibility evidence
Importance can buy resources or scope changes; it cannot repeal dependencies.
Read the idea ProtocolExplain forecast error by component
One error number can hide five different systems.
Read the idea ProtocolMaintain a local forecast-error baseline
Your own misses are a dataset if you keep them.
Read the idea