Collection
Model the decision before buying more certainty
Turn important choices into inspectable objectives, uncertainties, sensitivity tests, information-value questions and scored forecasts instead of intuitive spreadsheets with hidden assumptions.
14 elements · Explore in any order.
1 checklist · 1 heuristic · 2 principles · 7 protocols · 3 questions
14 elements
Write the objectives before inventing the options
The options you notice first should not get to define what you care about.
Read the idea QuestionSeparate the end from the means used to reach it
'Use AI' is not an objective until you say what it is supposed to improve.
Read the idea ProtocolDraw decisions, uncertainties and value on one page
A spreadsheet can calculate a model whose logic nobody can see.
Read the idea ProtocolUse a decision tree when sequence changes what you know
Order matters when tomorrow's decision gets to learn from today's outcome.
Read the idea ProtocolSweep one uncertain assumption across a plausible range
A single estimate hides how much the answer depends on being lucky about the assumption.
Read the idea HeuristicFind the assumption value where the choice flips
The important number may not be your best estimate; it may be the number where you would choose differently.
Read the idea ProtocolRank assumptions by decision leverage
Not every uncertain number deserves equal research budget.
Read the idea QuestionAsk what perfect information could change
Information has decision value only through a choice it can improve.
Read the idea PrincipleStop buying certainty that cannot change the choice
Research can become a very respectable form of postponement.
Read the idea ProtocolBuild an outside-view reference class
Your plan is unique. Your kind of mistake often is not.
Read the idea QuestionAudit the reference class before trusting its base rate
A base rate is only as relevant as the cases allowed into its denominator.
Read the idea ChecklistDefine the forecast event before assigning a probability
A probability cannot rescue an event nobody defined.
Read the idea ProtocolScore your probability forecasts instead of remembering the wins
A forecaster who remembers only being right has invented a very generous scoring rule.
Read the idea PrincipleSeparate calibration from sharpness
A forecast can be bold without being calibrated, and calibrated by being timid.
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