Heuristic
Find the assumption value where the choice flips
The important number may not be your best estimate; it may be the number where you would choose differently.
When it fits
- Two alternatives are close and an uncertain input appears to drive the recommendation.
When to avoid it
- A threshold inherits every assumption in the model; do not give it false precision.
Why it matters
Solve for the threshold at which the preferred alternative changes. Then compare that switch point with the plausible range and current evidence. A decision can be robust even with uncertainty if the threshold is far away; conversely, a tiny plausible change can reveal that more information is valuable.
An example
If a replacement platform is preferable only when migration effort stays below 14 days, the relevant research question is whether 14 days is plausible—not whether the mean estimate is 13.5.
Check your result
The team can name the boundary that would change the decision and whether current uncertainty crosses it.
Keep this limit in mind
- A threshold inherits every assumption in the model; do not give it false precision.
Evidence and sources
Sensitivity analysis can identify thresholds at which an assumption change alters the preferred alternative rather than only changing its numerical score.
A threshold in a simplified model is not a physical law and should be tested against omitted uncertainties.
Fifty years of decision analysis in operational research: A review · Local sensitivity analysis and decision insights