Heuristic
Judge readiness after the answer has faded
Confidence beside an open answer key is cheaply purchased.
When it fits
- You mark everything as learned while the explanation is still in front of you.
When to avoid it
- A well-calibrated recall judgment does not establish practical competence in a different task.
Why it matters
Make a later judgment from the question or cue alone, then compare it with actual performance. Research on delayed judgments of learning found better prediction of later recall than immediate judgments in the tested tasks. Use the delay to improve calibration, not to declare your intuition infallible.
An example
After a break, predict whether you can explain a term before opening the notes again.
Check your result
Confidence is compared with an observable answer rather than recorded as the answer itself.
Keep this limit in mind
- A well-calibrated recall judgment does not establish practical competence in a different task.
Connected ideas
Useful withSpace review for when the knowledge must last
Evidence and sources
Supports
Nelson and Dunlosky found that delayed judgments from learning cues predicted later recall more accurately than judgments made immediately after study.
A delay improves the information available for a judgment in the tested task; it does not eliminate overconfidence.