Heuristic
Preserve options when information is coming soon
Optionality can be valuable under unresolved uncertainty.
When it fits
- When two paths have similar current value but one keeps more future choices open at modest cost.
When to avoid it
- Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers.
Why it matters
Identify what future information will arrive, which choices each option preserves, and the premium paid for flexibility. Preserve options only when the likely decision value justifies the premium.
An example
Use a portable data format for six months because vendor economics are uncertain and migration cost would otherwise become irreversible.
Check your result
The flexibility premium is compared with a plausible future decision benefit.
Keep this limit in mind
- Scenarios and robust-decision tools organize uncertainty; they do not predict the future. Preserve governance, evidence and explicit review triggers.
Connected ideas
Useful withUse regret as a cross-scenario lens, not prophecy
Evidence and sources
Supports
Value-of-information analysis estimates the expected benefit of collecting further information and can help prioritize which uncertainties deserve more research.
Simplified workplace heuristics do not compute formal EVPI or EVSI and should be used as prioritization prompts only.
Value of Information Analysis in Models to Inform Health Policy · Abstract