Protocol
Stress-test the high-impact scenario without calling it likely
Severity deserves preparation; it does not deserve a fake probability.
When it fits
- A low-probability scenario would be expensive enough that ignoring it could be reckless.
When to avoid it
- Worst-case imagination can inflate fear. Pair this technique with base rates, sensitivity analysis and ordinary expected scenarios.
Why it matters
Describe the scenario, what would have to be true, the earliest indicators, the main consequence and a proportionate hedge or contingency. Keep probability and impact separate. Do not let a vivid worst case hijack the base case.
Steps
- The mitigation is proportionate to uncertainty and impact, and the scenario is not being presented as a forecast.
An example
A critical vendor outage during cutover is not the base case, but a tested rollback and offline contact path may be cheap enough to justify.
Check your result
The mitigation is proportionate to uncertainty and impact, and the scenario is not being presented as a forecast.
Keep this limit in mind
- Worst-case imagination can inflate fear. Pair this technique with base rates, sensitivity analysis and ordinary expected scenarios.
Connected ideas
Useful withDefine update indicators before the situation moves
Evidence and sources
High-impact/low-probability analysis explores consequential scenarios without asserting that they are likely.
Scenario severity should not be confused with probability.
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis · Contrarian Techniques: High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis