Template
Define update indicators before the situation moves
Write the evidence that would make you update while you are still calm.
When it fits
- You have a forecast or working judgment that will become stale as the environment changes.
When to avoid it
- Indicators can lag, be manipulated or lose relevance. Review the indicator set when the model changes.
A template to use
Judgment: [current view]. Indicator: [observable]. Source: [source]. Update if: [condition]. Review: [cadence].
Why it matters
List a small set of observable indicators that would strengthen, weaken or invalidate the current judgment. Give each a source, review cadence and update rule. Prefer indicators with a clear link to the hypothesis rather than convenient dashboard metrics.
An example
Judgment: the launch window remains feasible. Indicator: unresolved critical defects. Update if more than two remain 48 hours before freeze.
Check your result
At least one indicator would force a change in the current judgment rather than merely provide more context.
Keep this limit in mind
- Indicators can lag, be manipulated or lose relevance. Review the indicator set when the model changes.
Connected ideas
Useful withBuild an evidence-by-hypothesis matrix
Evidence and sources
Indicators or signposts can be defined in advance to track whether a situation is moving toward or away from an analytic judgment.
Indicators need updating and can be noisy; absence of a signpost is not proof that a scenario is impossible.
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis · Diagnostic Techniques: Indicators or Signposts of Change