Collection
Challenge the leading explanation before confidence hardens
Add structured analytic techniques for assumptions, competing hypotheses, disconfirming evidence, indicators, adversarial challenge and low-probability/high-impact scenarios.
8 elements · Explore in any order.
1 checklist · 1 heuristic · 5 protocols · 1 template
8 elements
List the load-bearing assumptions before adding confidence
Confidence often sits on assumptions that have never been inspected.
Read the idea ProtocolWrite competing explanations before scoring the favorite
A hypothesis deserves competition before it deserves confidence.
Read the idea ProtocolBuild an evidence-by-hypothesis matrix
Put the same evidence against every hypothesis.
Read the idea HeuristicSearch for evidence that can separate the explanations
More evidence is not the same as more discrimination.
Read the idea ProtocolGive the favored judgment a real devil's advocate
Challenge works only when the alternative is allowed to be serious.
Read the idea ProtocolRed-team the plan from the other side of the system
Your plan is not the only plan in the room.
Read the idea TemplateDefine update indicators before the situation moves
Write the evidence that would make you update while you are still calm.
Read the idea ProtocolStress-test the high-impact scenario without calling it likely
Severity deserves preparation; it does not deserve a fake probability.
Read the idea