Checklist
List the load-bearing assumptions before adding confidence
Confidence often sits on assumptions that have never been inspected.
When it fits
- A recommendation feels coherent but depends on premises nobody has written down.
When to avoid it
- Not every premise can be verified cheaply. The aim is to expose leverage, not eliminate uncertainty.
Checklist
- What must be true for this conclusion to hold?
- Which premise is inferred rather than observed?
- Which assumption is most decision-sensitive?
- What signal would show it has failed?
Why it matters
List the assumptions that must hold for the conclusion to remain useful. Mark each as observed, inferred or merely convenient. Then ask which assumption would change the decision fastest if it failed. Investigate that one first.
An example
A migration plan assumes source volume, mapping stability and a four-hour window. The window assumption has the highest decision leverage, so test it first.
Check your result
At least one assumption is tied to evidence or a planned test rather than remaining implicit.
Keep this limit in mind
- Not every premise can be verified cheaply. The aim is to expose leverage, not eliminate uncertainty.
Connected ideas
Use beforeWrite competing explanations before scoring the favorite
Evidence and sources
The primer presents structured analytic techniques as aids for complex, incomplete and ambiguous analysis rather than as substitutes for judgment.
The techniques structure reasoning; they do not guarantee accuracy.
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis · Introduction and strategies for using structured analytic techniques
A Key Assumptions Check makes premises explicit so analysts can inspect their validity and sensitivity to change.
An assumption list is only useful if important premises are actually surfaced and revisited.
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis · Diagnostic Techniques: Key Assumptions Check