Protocol
Track a precursor you can act on before the failure
The best early metric points to a decision, not merely to an earlier number.
When it fits
- A known failure appears only in lagging outcome metrics after the opportunity to prevent it has passed.
When to avoid it
- Do not label a convenient activity count as 'leading' without a plausible connection to the risk. Revisit the indicator if it does not help decisions.
Why it matters
Choose a leading indicator tied to a known failure path and an available intervention. Define what movement means, who responds, and the threshold or trend that triggers action. Prefer signals close to the mechanism: unresolved-hazard age, time in degraded mode, overdue critical checks, failed validations or response time to a known defect. A metric with no response rule is observation, not prevention.
Steps
- When the signal moves, a named person knows what decision or action follows before the final failure occurs.
An example
Instead of waiting for failed releases, track how long critical production defects remain without an owner and escalate when age crosses the agreed limit.
Check your result
When the signal moves, a named person knows what decision or action follows before the final failure occurs.
Keep this limit in mind
- Do not label a convenient activity count as 'leading' without a plausible connection to the risk. Revisit the indicator if it does not help decisions.
Connected ideas
Useful withPair the early signal with the outcome it is meant to protect
Evidence and sources
OSHA distinguishes leading indicators that reveal preventive activity or emerging problems from lagging indicators that measure outcomes that already occurred, and recommends using both.
A metric is not useful merely because it is early; it still needs to be specific, interpretable and connected to a decision.
Leading Indicators · Leading Indicators overview